Skipping right past Group G, a sucking fen of depression too awful to contemplate without the consolation of alcoholic beverage (my prediction: Germany wins by a half a gazillion points, barely pausing to clean the opponent from their cleats as they sail on to the Round of 16, Portugal takes a characteristically ugly but definitive second), let's have a look at a more interesting gathering.
Bosnia-Herzegovina is one of those sides, not unlike Algeria, sprung up from the muck and ashes of a truly hellish war, this one not two decades past. Times are still dark in the country, but the footballing team is a shining hope, composed of ethnic Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks together. Twice in recent history have they threatened to erupt into the limelight on European fields, and twice (in 2010 for the World Cup and 2012 for the Euro) been summarily put down by (a characteristically ugly but definitive) Portugal. This year, they're in the final running, sporting an attack-minded formation featuring top scorer Edin Dzeko from Man City and Roma's Miralem Pjanic, and with Stoke City's Asmir Begovic in goal. Coach Safet Susic says, "There is a huge risk in the way we play," using a single holding midfielder behind a strong line of forwards and attacking midfielders, "opening up huge space for an opponent-- but it would be unfair to the fans, to the game and to us if we were to suppress such a talent." I call that a refreshingly honest and brave approach, and I wish the Zmajevi, the Dragons, well.
Iran's Team Melli has two connections with the USA: Mehrdad Beitashour, a defender for the San Jose Earthquakes, and an assistant coach, Dan Gaspar (of dual Portuguese-American citizenship), who began his footballing career in Connecticut. He landed this unusual job after having worked with current head coach Carlos Queiroz on the national Portugal team (from which Queiroz was fired in 2010, ostensibly for having insulted an anti-doping squad who was trying to take samples at his training ground). Living year-round in Tehran, Gaspar has met the last two Iranian presidents, and says ex-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has "an impressive knowledge of soccer." Iran's first World Cup appearance was in 1978 in Argentina, where they did not emerge from the group stage. As of September of this year, FIFA had them ranked first in Asia, and 45th worldwide.
You've seen Nigeria's Super Eagles before. Beginning official play in the late forties while still a British colony, they've become a great footballing force in Africa, winning the Africa Cup of Nations three times, taking the gold medal at the Atlanta Summer Olympics in 1996, and reaching the World Cup Round of 16 twice. They've qualified for five of the last six World Cups, stirring up an intense rivalry with Cameroon along the way, and a sort of ongoing grudge-battle against Argentina, as well, who have beat them in the last two group stages, et voila! Here they are, rematched again.
There was, in fact, something of a brouhaha after their early exit from the 2010 World Cup. According to Wikipedia, Nigeria's president, charmingly named Goodluck Jonathan, suspended the Eagles from international competition for two years as a sort of punishment, I guess, for their bad luck and poor showing. FIFA retaliated by making the ban official, for "political interference," but the whole thing blew over in a few months and they are back in action, ready to have another crack at the Argentines.
Which brings us neatly round to the heroes of the hour, Argentina's Albiceleste. When you go back and watch the Argentine side in the last two World Cups, a few things are clear. One is that in 2006 Jose Pekerman was in charge of a squad so electric with talent, some of it admittedly very young, that their beautiful play could take your breath away (see Argentina v Serbia-Montenegro). Why they lost out to the evil Germans in the quarterfinal is a controversial matter (they took the Argentine keeper out with a knee to the ribs, then won in penalties. Deliberate or not, I will never forgive them. There was also a lingering question about why Pekerman failed to deploy his shining wild card, the young Lionel Messi, against the Hunnish Maleficience. In any case, the match was close and ugly, the Bosch scraped by in penalties, there was a fight on the pitch afterwards, and Pekerman, a smart, likable and possibly even noble manager, had delivered his resignation before his feet hit the pavement).
The Germans took them out again, this time in an agonizing shambles, in the 2010 quarterfinal. This time (although, admittedly, the Germans were very good, and I want you to understand how difficult it is for me to say that) the reason for the rout was clear: Diego Maradona is a crazy man, and you don't let a crazy man coach your team. The greatest practitioners are often (usually?) not the greatest teachers, and Maradona is unquestionably bug-fucking mad. Point taken, lesson learned.
This year, we have Alejandro Sabella sporting the coaching hat. A midfielder in his time, he began with River Plate then moved to England for a four-year spell at Sheffield and Leeds. A great success at Sheffield United, he didn't take well to Leeds, which was suffering a time of turmoil and uncertainty in leadership. He returned thereafter to the Americas, where he would spend the rest of his career both as player and coach, finding particular success guiding Estudiantes to the 2009 Club World Cup final, where world-dominators Barca only managed to beat them in added time. In short, he has the international experience, the coaching smarts, and, gods help us, the anti-Maradona-ish humility, to coax a fine team to a long-coveted trophy.
As far as players go, Captain Messi will know this is his chance. He'll probably have Barcelona teammate Javier Mascherano behind him, a man who has always played as a holding midfielder for his country but who has proved himself a powerful and reliable centerback in Spain. Also fresh from Madrid will come Angel Di Maria and (from Madrid via Naples) Gonzalo Higuain, with powerhouse attacking midfielder Javier Pastore emerging as a force to be reckoned with from his recent successes at Paris Saint-Germain (along with rumors linking him to either Arsenal or Liverpool).
My question, though, for Sabella is this: why no Willy Caballero? I haven't been following closely this season, but for the past few years, the Malaga player has been my favorite goalkeeper in La Liga, brave and forthright and untiring. Why no Argentina joy?
My prediction: Argentina takes first, Nigeria a hard-fought second.
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